Economics toolbox… the blog

July 10, 2009

Out of left field: Nick Bostrom at Activate09

Filed under: technology — John Powell @ 3:14 pm

Nick Bostrom is director of the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford. He gets my prize for pulling the rug out from our feet, in terms of the scope of his presentation. The Institute’s four research areas are human enhancement,  global catastrophic risks, rationality and wisdom and future technologies. Bostrom’s talk combined all four, exploring the likelihood of human extinction vs the evolution of humans into ‘post-humans’ (partly along the lines of Ray Kurzweil and singularity and partly in terms of extended lifespan / population growth). He was making me think so much I couldn’t really make notes.

There was some overlap in tenor with Matt Webb’s later presentation, in terms of the macroscopic view of things. Bostrom offered a very macroscopic view of human existence, ‘zooming out’ to put human existence and technological development into a multi-billion year context. It made me think quite alot of the Stephen Baxter sci-fi book ‘Evolution’, which adopts a similarly massive timescale. There was also some tangential  overlap with John Hagel (again), as Bostrom started with the same Breugel painting of Icarus’ fall as Hagel and Seely Brown start their working paper version of ‘From Push to Pull’ (referenced by Werner Vogels just prior to Bostrom’s keynote).

Moving presentations: Clare Lockhart / Gerry Jackson at Activate09

Filed under: economics, macroeconomics, technology — Tags: — John Powell @ 2:51 pm

The broader social and political scope of Activate09 was evident in Clare Lockhart’s presentation, one of two particularly moving (and inspiring) presentations from the summit. Lockhart is co-founder and CEO of Institute for State Effectiveness and co-author of ‘Fixing Failed States’ (with Ashraf Ghani). I’ve just ordered it from Amazon. At Activate09, she particularly focussed on Afghanistan, as one of 40–100 ‘fragile states’ globally. The UN and World Bank have no “manuals” for rebuilding the institutions of a state, yet the consequences of failure of government are severe. Lockhart offered a number of example situations to illustrate alternatives to the orthodoxies of rebuilding states.

For instance, in Afghanistan, there were three separate currencies, each relating to a different warlord’s regional power. The IMF said it would take two years to conert to the US dollar. The UN said it would need 15,000 bureaucrats to manage the currency transition. However, the Afghani moneychangers had a network throughout every village and were negotiated down (by the Afghan Minister of Finance, I think) to a 1% fee to do the transition. The implication I got from this was that it also took much less time than the IMF said too.

The UN solution for fixing the Afghan phone network was to pay Ericcson lots of money, but the Ofcom team (I’m assuming, from what she said) that designed the UK’s 3G mobile licence auction worked out a a licensing system and there are now 6 million phones and there’s been $1bn in inward investment.

One theme that was explored was the failure of the governance and aid system and the consequences of this, particularly the replacement of the state by a criminal economy. The state did not fund education beyond primary nor the transport infrastructure. What had been successful, however, was self-management by villages, cutting out the NGOs (who often didn’t recognise the humiliation that aid implied for a ‘proud people’). Ghani and Lockhart’s book, she said, suggests finding a balance between networks and heirarchies in determining the role of the 21st century state.

In terms of the role of technology in enabling such rebuilding, Lockhart focussed on the ideas of user-centred design and of innovation happening at the ‘edge’ (cf Umair Haque – present at Activate09, though unfortunately I didn’t attend the morning session he presented at – and John Hagel – referenced by several speakers directly or indirectly eg Werner Vogels). She made the point that these countries have no legacy issues in terms of technology, but have enormous scope to improve citizens’ lives through suitable application. One example is dissemination of price information for farmers: given the relative distance and poor transport infrastructure, farmers are at a negotiating disadvantage once they arrive at a market – they can’t decide to go and sell elsewhere as the produce wouldn’t survive the trip. Being able to access market price information before they venture to market gives them some negotiating power. Another example she mentioned was telemedicine.

The final area Clare Lockhart addressed was accountability and particpation – how can technology enable discussion to determine the functions of the state and to hold states accountable. Citizens can do this if they are given access to budget information (online). This requirement for the openness of data was another theme that appeared repeatedly in other speakers’ presentations.

Gerry Jackson was the other speaker that gave a particularly moving presentation, again relating to failed states. Unfortunately I did not manage to take very  many notes (in part due to the rather depressing context – one of my friends just married a guy from Zim and the state of the country is disasterous). Jackson is director of SWRadio Africa which is an independent short wave news broadcaster for Zimbabwe. She noted that Zimbabwe is more dependent on NGO food aid than any other country. Given the level of media control and oppression under Mugabe (that has persisted depite the unity government – the BBC is still banned, I believe) – SWRAdio Africa provides a useful antidote to state media.The SW broadcasts were being jammed so the station has resorted to SMS messaging (sent to 30,000 subscribers three times a week) and podcasting (60-70,000 downloads per month).

There were quite few tweets about supporting SWRadio Africa with technical support and fundraising after her presentation. You can donate here.

July 6, 2009

Werner Vogels at Activate09

Filed under: e-business, technology — Tags: , , — John Powell @ 3:28 pm

Werner Vogels, CTO of Amazon, was first keynote speaker of the day at Activate09. My notes from his presentation suffer from my usual unintelligible handwriting issues (really wish I’d taken my MBP with me), but this is what I can glean (and recall).

Vogels focussed initially on the removal of resource constraints (in terms of the access to processing capability that Amazon Web Services (AWS) offers). He offered several examples of the application of AWS, including the Guardian’s own crowdsourcing of the interpretation of MPs’ expenses data, a social gaming developer – Playfish – who had 27 million users of their Facebook games, and the Indy500 (which offered seven live streams of the racing to 3-4million users, but for only three days a year).

He cited Hagel and Seely Brown’s 2005 article ‘From Push to Pull’ (which seems to have been in The McKinsey Quarterly) as emphasising the issue of mobilising resources (and by extension, not necessarily owning those resources). Faced with limited access to capital (especially given the current financial environment), not owning the resources reduces risk and makes the cost of IT a variable cost. He describes AWS as “infrastructure services”. It was evident that Vogels was taking the Nick Carr line on the commoditisation of IT, as he drew the same parallels to the supply of electricity as Carr does in The Big Switch and earlier.

Vogels then went on to run through quite a few more examples of firms employing AWS. Autodesk wants to do 3D CAD on the web and is using AWS to reduce the risk associated with buying their own infrastructure (at that scale) to support the service. Livestream – who do live video streams, as you might imagine – have no servers of their own, at all. Animoto, another Facebook app developer, had a huge demand spike for one of their apps (Vogels said 25,000 users per hour, though he had already said 25,000 something else just before this, so it might not be accurate). Their use of Amazon ‘instances’ (= virtual servers) scaled from 50 to 5000 over a few days. Bild.de (German newspaper) wanted to start a citizen video journalist project. Their internal IT team said it would take 9-12 months to get it up and running. They launched in 4 weeks on AWS. He went on to mention, but not elaborate on, Pfizer and Eli Lilley in pharmacuticals, the Washington Post and New York Times, eHarmony (dating) and Smugmug (who have 1 petabyte of image data on Amazon’s S3 storage service and eBayed their hardware).

He ended up with some points on a cloud ecosystem and marketplace, though I didn’t actually note the detail (doh!).

Apart from the examples, I didn’t get anything I didn’t already know about the cloud and of course Werner didn’t mention the outages (though Ted Dziuba in The Register today suggests that Amazon’s response to technical fails was substantially better than Google’s). Nonetheless, I was wishing I’d been able to write my cloud and HE blog post for JISC after this, rather than before.

July 3, 2009

cms nightmare

Filed under: technology — John Powell @ 7:59 pm

having just spent hours faffing with various open source cms installs, I’ve given up. None of them are are as easy and smooth to deal with as wordpress is. I’ve become even more impressed with it than I was before.

should really have been writing up my Activate09 notes… soon.

US government investigates Google book deal

Filed under: e-business, economics, microeconomics — Tags: , — John Powell @ 3:18 pm

The Guardian: “American authorities are conducting a formal investigation into whether Google’s $125m deal with the US book industry is anti-competitive. The Department of Justice has confirmed that it is looking into the internet giant’s agreement with authors’ groups to pay for the right to digitise and sell millions of books.”

Remote fun

Filed under: technology — Tags: , — John Powell @ 1:45 pm

The neat thing about this is being able to post from my iPhone. Changes the dynamics of playing with economicstoolbox a lot.

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